Renowned Pollster’s Career Ends After Major Iowa Election Miss
J. Ann Selzer, one of America’s most respected pollsters, announced her retirement from election polling following a significant miscalculation in her final Iowa survey that sparked nationwide controversy.
The announcement comes after her poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading by 3 points in a state where Donald Trump ultimately won by a 13-point margin.
Selzer’s firm conducted the final pre-election poll for The Des Moines Register, projecting Harris ahead with 47% among likely voters, compared to Trump’s 44%.
This surprising forecast raised Democratic hopes and generated widespread media attention. However, the actual election results painted a drastically different picture, with Trump securing a decisive victory of 56% to Harris’s 43%.
“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist,” Selzer wrote in her farewell column for the Des Moines Register. She emphasized that her decision to step away from election polling predated the controversial results, noting she had informed the Register over a year ago about her intentions to pursue other ventures.
The pollster’s unexpected miss marked a striking departure from her historically accurate track record. Before 2024, Selzer had built an impressive reputation over three decades:
- I received an A+ rating from election forecaster Nate Silver.
- Correctly predicted winners in five out of six presidential elections.
- The Iowa Poll maintained its position as the methodological gold standard.
- I have been the main pollster for the Register since 1997.
Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, addressed the situation head-on: “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”
In a surprising twist, Selzer suggested that her poll might have actually helped Trump’s victory. “The findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory,” she reflected in a post-election analysis.
The polling mishap triggered intense media coverage, with networks like MSNBC, CNN, and ABC’s “The View” initially treating the forecast as a potential sign of broader Midwestern shifts toward Harris. MSNBC host Rachel Maddow had notably emphasized Selzer’s historical accuracy, stating, “If anybody is accurate, it’s likely to be Ann Selzer in the Iowa poll.”
Looking ahead, the Des Moines Register plans to reimagine its approach to capturing public opinion. The Register’s executive editor, Carol Hunter, stated that they will explore innovative methods to precisely gauge Iowans’ views on both state and national matters.
Despite the controversial end to her election polling career, Selzer maintains pride in her decades of work: “My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade.
For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls that remind me that my commitment to truth and accuracy was what drew me to them as friends, colleagues, and clients.
The story serves as a reminder that even the most experienced pollsters can face unexpected challenges in capturing public sentiment, especially in today’s complex political landscape. As Selzer transitions to new ventures, her career highlights both the achievements and limitations of modern political polling.